"Use It or Lose It" Voting Research

Many organizations focus attention on registering voters. Others focus on getting out the vote (GOTV).

In comparison, little attention is paid to the process of maintaining voter lists, which includes the removal of names of those who are deemed to no longer be valid voters. In Texas, these removals can occur when a voter dies, is convicted of a felony, or moves to a new address, among other reasons.

Voter list maintenance (VLM) practices have an enormous impact on voters in Texas voters and across the country. Below is an historic view of Texas voter list maintenance data. The information is from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission survey (EAVS) for 2018-2022. This information was submitted to the survey by Texas. The 2024 information is from the Texas Secretary of State Elections website. As of March 2024, Texas had 2.1 million voters in Suspense status. The 2022 Election Assistance Commission survey showed 23 million voters in Suspense status across the country.

Voters in suspense, moved, and did not update their voter record. They will be cancelled/purged from the voter list if they don't vote in the next two federal elections.

In March 2024, voters in suspense were 11.8% of total registered voters, up from 10.3% in 2022.

Voting in November will remove your suspense status.

Our research selected a major voter list maintenance bill (SB260) to study. It was introduced and passed in the Senate during the 2023 legislative session. It was clear from reading the bill, that it would impact millions of Texans. The bill does not allocate any funding to county election offices to implement the process or for voter education.

The goal of our research is to understand how VLM practices affect voters. Do they affect some voters more than others; i.e. are there differential effects based on race, income, or other demographic characteristics? How will prospective legislation affect voters?

This bill supplements the current state process for voter suspension by sending notices to Active voters who haven't voted in the past 25 months. Our analysis shows that nearly 500,000 North Texas voters are at high risk of receiving a notification from County Elections and being put in suspense status - in Collin, Dallas, Denton and Tarrant counties.

The study provides data by U.S. Congressional district and Texas Senate and House Districts. The research indicates that the bill will disproportionately impact minority districts.

The bill did not advance in the House but was reintroduced in both the Senate and House in subsequent sessions. The bill is expected to be introduced again for consideration in the 2025 legislative session.

Since the Supreme Court removed Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act on preclearance review in 2013, Texas no longer needs to justify the reason for its voter-related bills. "Under Section 5, covered jurisdictions had the burden of proving to the satisfaction of federal reviewers that a new law was not discriminatory." Michael Li, Brennan Center Senior Counsel, Democracy.

One out of five voters in the Texas counties below are likely to be at risk to be targeted for suspension status.

Dr. Andrea Barreiro led this work with Robin Lederer. You can access the study at the SMU website and below. Dr. Andrea Barreiro is also conducting research on the historic impacts of Texas voter laws on voters. You can access the abstracts for this research on the SMU website. Dr. Barreiro is also a member of MathForUnbiasedMapsTX (MUM_TX) and develops methods for creation and analysis of districting plans. You can find their work from 2021 here.

We would be happy to schedule a zoom call to discuss the current research with interested parties.

We are seeking academics who would like to help us advance the study of voter list maintenance, and specifically complete this study of districts across Texas for peer review and publishing. Please email us at info@ncvr.org or fill out the contact form on the Home page.

Here is the study: "Use It or Lose It" Texas Voter Bill Analysis.

Below is a view of Texas counties with the highest number of voters in 'Suspense' status.

The 15 counties have 1.4 million of the 2.1 million voters that are in suspense in Texas as of March 2024.

In December 2024, the next big "purge" will start and will remove voters who moved after November 2020, were mailed a notification from County Elections, were put into Suspense status, didn't respond to the notice, and didn't vote in any election since then, including the 2022 Federal election, and they don't vote in November 2024. These voters will not receive a notice that they are no longer eligible to vote.

1.4 million Texans were in suspense in March 2024 in the countes below.

Voting in November will remove your suspense status.